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Big-5 league rankings: the forecasts

The 348th edition of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the forecasts for the 2021/22 season at the level of the five major European leagues.

The statistical model used for this purpose includes the players’ experience, transfer fee investments to assemble squads, as well as each team’s performance in the last 365 days.

With respect to 2020/21, the only change from a champions perspective is supposed to take place in Spain, with Real Madrid finishing ahead of Atlético and Barcelona.

In England, the top four would be the same as last season, with Tottenham fifth ahead of Everton. Norwich City, Watford and Newcastle United are the main candidates for relegation.

In Italy, Inter Milan would outrank Napoli and city rivals Milan AC, with Juventus only sixth.

Wolfsburg are the most likely runners-up in the German Bundesliga, ahead of Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen.

In France, after Paris St-Germain, we would find the two Olympique (Marseille and Lyon in this order), while St-Etienne is a serious candidate for relegation.

About the CIES Football Observatory

The CIES Football Observatory is a research group within the International Centre for Sports Studies (CIES). Created in 2005 by Dr. Raffaele Poli and Dr. Loïc Ravenel, the CIES Football Observatory currently comprises a staff of four full-time permanent researchers who specialise in the statistical analysis of football. Click here for more information.

About the CIES

The International Centre for Sports Studies (CIES) is an independent study centre located in Neuchâtel, Switzerland. It was created in 1995 as a joint venture between the Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA), the University of Neuchâtel, the City and State of Neuchatel. Click here for more information. Click here for more information.

CIES – Centre International d’Étude du Sport
Avenue DuPeyrou 1, 2000 Neuchâtel
Phone +41 32 718 39 00 - Fax +41 32 718 39 01
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