Expected points: most over-and under-paid clubs

CIES Football Observatory Report 10 January 2022

Expected points: most over-and under-paid clubs

Issue number 363 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post compares points achieved by teams from 32 leagues of UEFA member associations with points expected according to a statistical model including ball possession and the number and distance of both shots taken and conceded (InStat data).

With 2.71 points per match achieved and 1.75 expected, the Romanians of CFR Cluj have the most positive gap (+0.96).

The Italian second division side Vicenza Virtus are at the opposite end (-0.81).

At big-5 league level, the greatest positive difference between points achieved and expected was recorded for Paris St-Germain (+0.77, 4th overall behind Cluj, Trabzonspor and FC Zurich), ahead of Milan AC (+0.71) and Eintracht Frankfurt (+0.50).

At the other end of the spectrum are AS St-Etienne (-0.48), RB Leipzig (-0.43) and Greuther Fürth (-0.42).

In the English Premier League, the gaps vary between +0.40 for Tottenham Hotspur and -0.32 for Newcastle United.

Bayern Munich is the most dominant teams from an expected point perspective (2.65 per match), followed by Crvena Zvezda, Ajax, Celtic, Rangers, Dynamo Kyiv, Porto, Manchester City, Young Boys and RB Salzburg.

Conversely, Hrvatski dragovoljac, Sandhausen and Fortuna Sittard are the three most dominated teams among the 518 surveyed.

Further data from our partners InStat data is accessible for free in the Performance Stats tool.

About the CIES Football Observatory

The CIES Football Observatory is a research group created in 2005 within the Swiss-based Centre International d’Étude du Sport (CIES). It specialises in the statistical analysis of football, in particular in the areas of demographics, transfer values and performance. Click here for more information.

About the CIES

The International Centre for Sports Studies (CIES) is an independent study centre located in Neuchâtel, Switzerland. It was created in 1995 as a joint venture between the Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA), the University of Neuchâtel, the City and State of Neuchatel. Click here for more information. Click here for more information.

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