Paid transfers economic check-up: Courtois best recruitment
The first CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post of the 2018/19 season assesses from an economic perspective paid transfers having taken place during last summer. It highlights that Thibault Courtois went to Real Madrid for a much lower amount than the estimated fair price (-€23 M). Conversely, Chelsea FC paid over the odds to recruit his substitute: Kepa Arrizabalaga (+€45 M).
The fair price corresponds to the average between the estimated cost for the most likely buyer before the transfer and the current transfer value. Both figures were calculated using the exclusive CIES Football Observatory algorithm. The correlation between fees estimated and reported for players transferred for money from big-5 league teams during last transfer window was 75%.
Rodri Hernández, Bryan Cristante, Fabinho Tavares and Clément Lenglet are alongside Thibaut Courtois in the top five for the best operations from an engaging club perspective. For Rodri and Lenglet, the existence of a release clause helped recruiting teams to sign them at a favourable price.
As for Kepa Arrizabalaga, the CIES Football Observatory analysis reveals that releasing teams negotiated very well the transfers of Riyad Mahrez, Thilo Kehrer, Yerry Mina and Alex Meret.
About the CIES Football Observatory
The CIES Football Observatory is a research group within the International Centre for Sports Studies (CIES). Created in 2005 by Dr. Raffaele Poli and Dr. Loïc Ravenel, the CIES Football Observatory currently comprises a staff of four full-time permanent researchers who specialise in the statistical analysis of football. Click here for more information.
About the CIES
The International Centre for Sports Studies (CIES) is an independent study centre located in Neuchâtel, Switzerland. It was created in 1995 as a joint venture between the Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA), the University of Neuchâtel, the City and State of Neuchatel. Click here for more information. Click here for more information.
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